Collectible paper at auction has been on a tear post-Covid and now we’re entering a period of political uncertainty.  To understand how the auctions and their consignors are responding, our auction data provides perspective on how the market is unfolding.

 

Given this, here are possible projections for 2024.

 

The auctions we posted and completed through 30 May, 2024, are showing substantial growth both for the number of auctions and lots posted.

 

I then compared both the number of auctions and lots posted for January – May for the past 3 years to see what their January - May numbers turned into for their full years. On average J-M’s numbers turned out to be 40% what the full year’s results became.*  This means this year's 1,158 sales are projecting 2,907 sales for the full year.  If so, Golly Gee Willikers!

Year J-M	Auctions	Lots
2021	858	236,960
2022	990	261,460
2023	1008	261,076
2024	1158	284,489

 

 

Full Year	Lots Offered	Lots Sold	% Sold	2.5 x J-M
2319	636,853	522,032	82%	2.7
2354	626,346	504,795	81%	2.38
2480	658,433	525,433	80%	2.46
2,907	714,067	571,254	78%	2.51

 

 

            And can we reach a billion dollars for collectible paper again?

 

The answer is yes if the average sale is $1,750.05.

 

All this said, we have no idea how this year’s political uncertainty is going to affect consignments.  Right now, it’s full speed ahead!