There are 13 weeks left in 2026. We have reported 3,135 sales so far this year. Based on the number of weeks left, we'll report 4,180.
A standard linear calculation gives you (39 weeks elapsed 80 sales/week = 4,180 across 52 weeks), but because rare book and art auction markets are highly seasonal, which makes a flat linear projection underestimate Q4 totals.
Alternatively, the 4th quarter frequently experiences a seasonal surge. September through early December represents peak season for top-tier auction houses (Sotheby's, Christie's, Bonhams, Heritage, Forum, Swann, etc.). Hence sales volume routinely ramps up in autumn compared to the summer slowdown in July and August.
Collectible Paper at Auction by the Numbers
All taken together, between now to the end of the year, it looks likely we’ll average more than 90 auctions a week. If so, we’ll run above 4,300 sales. If sales run above 120 a week for a month or so, we may reach 4,400.
Does it matter?
As the numbers increase, collectible paper is increasingly understood to be an auction versus retail category. This transition has deserved more attention. AI has been a Godsend. Old paper benefits from deeper research.
As to total sales, the total dollars should run $1.25 to $1.4 billion.
To follow the market, we publish Weekly Auction Updates. They are free on Rare Book Hub, and we’ll send you a “Heads Up” Sunday afternoons if you have become one of our 24,000 (mostly free) signed up members.
